“I Think...”: How Smart People Slip into High-Risk Thinking

After hearing Rob Fisher and his colleagues from Fisher Improvement recently explain how performance modes shape decisions, it became clear to me why electrical incidents keep recurring. 

“I think this is the right way...”  That may not sound reckless at the moment. Usually, it sounds reassuring. But afterwards, when things calm down, you realize how close you may have come to a serious injury or loss.

Back in the 1980s, Danish researcher Jens Rasmussen started asking a deceptively simple question: “Why do smart people make dumb mistakes?” 

What he discovered still shapes how high-risk industries like aviation and nuclear power train their teams.. Turns out, our brains run in three modes of thinking.

The SRK Model

Rasmussen called his model the SRK model, short for the three levels of thinking when performing work: skills-based, rules-based, and knowledge-based. Most of the day, most of us are cruising in one of three settings: automatic, manual, or “figure it out as we go.” Each mode has its place in our workday. But only one belongs anywhere near hazardous electrical facilities and equipment. 

Let’s walk through them.

(S) - Skills-Based Mode: “I Could Do It In My Sleep!”

Error rate: about 1 in 1,000

Ever come back from the grocery, pull into the driveway, turn off the car, and think, “I don’t remember the last five minutes. But I got home safe!”

Skills-based work is what happens when you know what to do without really thinking about it. The routine stuff. You’ve performed an action or process so many times, your body just remembers what to do and does it. You were operating on pure habit.

In the field, that’s the electrician who’s swapped out the same motor fifty times, the nurse drawing blood for the thousandth time, the forklift operator backing into the dock without thinking about it.

When repeating the same task in the same environment, this mode is efficient and low risk.

Do something the same way fifty times in three months, and you get really good at it.

Your body just knows.

But any change to the setting or situation (different equipment, different people, different location) and that same confidence turns into a trap. You certainly feel like you’re in familiar territory, but the ground has shifted under you. That’s when even veterans with years of experience can trip over the simple stuff.

(R) - Rules-Based Mode: “What’s the Checklist Say?”

Error rate: about 1 in 100

When the road isn’t familiar, we grab the map: procedures and checklists.

We’ve entered the world of rules-based performance. You’re thinking carefully, step-by-step, everything by the book.

Every electrical safety program aims to keep people in the rules-based mode. No autopilot, no guessing. You’re following a straightforward process. Just as long as the instructions are clear.

But what if they’re not? That’s where the cracks start to form and the probability of an error starts to rise. 

Simple steps, like formatting instructions and documentation, matter more than most people think.

Surgery teams learned this years ago. Same scalpel, same doctors, but once they started running through a written checklist (“count sponges, confirm instruments”), the rate of forgotten tools or sponges inside patients dropped significantly.

These simple habits save lives.

But still, even moving from “automatic” skills-based thinking to this rules-based mode isn’t foolproof.

What if you skip a step or rush the procedure, or a weird situation comes up that the manual doesn’t cover? That’s when your brain shifts gears again.

And usually without telling you.

(K) - Knowledge-Based Mode: “I Guess This Works Just Like the Other One”

Error rate: 1 in 10

Now we get into the hazardous mode: knowledge-based mode.

This is the mode when you stop doing and start guessing. The instructions don’t fit what’s in front of you. Or your memory’s fuzzy about a specific part of the procedure. You’re improvising under pressure. You don’t know what you don’t know.

You can hear it when someone’s in this mode.

“I think…”

“Pretty sure…”

“It’ll be fine.”

Every one of those is a red flag wrapped in a casual tone, masking their uncertainty about what’s right in front of them.

Also watch for body language. Hand on chin thinking, a long silent pause, eyes flicking up like they’re playing a movie in their head. The wheels in the brain are turning, trying to piece things together. But they aren’t executing.

That’s the knowledge-based mode, which has an error rate of 10-20%.

Which is just fine if you’re trying out a new recipe. But it's catastrophic if you’re working around energized electrical equipment.

Listen for the Shift

The hardest part isn’t preventing the error, it’s noticing when the mind changes modes. Here’s what to listen to and what to look for:

Signal Type	What you notice	What it means
Words	“I think,” “I wonder,” “Maybe we should…”	You’ve entered uncertainty
Body	Scratching head, long pause, staring off	The brain is solving, not executing
Emotion	Frustration, hesitation, that gut flutter	Internal warning light

When you catch those cues, in yourself or someone else, that’s when you stop.

Speak with a colleague.

It’s not weakness; it’s awareness: The best operators see that hesitation as critical. It’s your brain’s way of telling you, “Hold on, something’s off.”

Why the Brain Betrays Us

The human brain hates uncertainty. It fills holes with assumptions. It patches missing information with old memories that look close enough. And, it does this very fast.

That works fine. Until it doesn’t.

Every incident report starts the same way:

• “He thought the system was de-energized.”

• “She assumed the valve was shut.”

• “They believed the line was safe.”
  

These people weren’t careless. They were in the wrong performance mode.

How You Can Change Today

• Ask your team where the environment forces people to “figure it out,” such as outdated drawings, poor labeling, or missing documentation. 

• Check to ensure the last arc flash study was conducted within the past 5 years or since any changes to the distribution system.

• Review near misses with your team, emphasizing what could have happened, and ask in which performance mode the person was when the incident occurred.

• Teach your team to recognize knowledge mode signals.
  

Responsibility Starts with Awareness

Every company preaches that “safety is everyone’s responsibility.” Fine words. But here’s the kicker: responsibility starts with awareness.

If your teams are constantly making educated guesses, they’re already one decision away from an accident.

Safety isn’t about just yelling “be careful!” It’s about noticing when the brain changes gears and having the guts to pump the brakes.

Because the next time someone says, “I think this is the right way,” you’ll know what that really means:

They’ve slipped into knowledge-based mode.

And that’s the most dangerous sentence in the building.

Guidant Power helps organizations turn awareness into action.  From arc flash analysis, to infrared inspection, to electrical skills and safety training, all focused on keeping your equipment running and your people out of the danger zone.

Contact our team today to start a conversation about your facility’s safety and reliability.